Life is an ensemble model
In 2008, Netflix held an open competition that offered $1 million to the team that could best improve its recommendation system to suggest users films. The team that won didn’t use a single traditional model like linear regression. Instead, they created a new kind of model called an ensemble model. What made this model unique was that, rather than trying to build one perfect predictor, they combined many weaker models into a single, stronger one. By “stacking” models, the ensemble performed better than any of the individual components on their own. The idea was revolutionary in the field, and I think is an interesting framework for life.
We are born with, and through experience are taught, many different models of understanding the world. Some are biological (touching a hot stove hurts, reproduction ensures survival, and hunger is our body telling us that we need more calories). Some are more abstract, like the idea of the present value of money or opportunity cost. Others are socialized into us (the Lakers are the best team and if they win I am happy, debt is bad, substances are for the morally weak, or that the United States and capitalism are good). Each of these models provides a lens upon the world differently. None of these are correct or wrong on their own, but each is correct in some capacity, and maybe wrong in others.
I grew up in a religious community, but over time I was put off by specific things I disagreed with, and by many of the greater wars in history that had been done in the name of crusading. I stopped feeling particularly spiritual or moved by those practices, and by my twenties, I went through a phase where I thought religious people were foolish, especially those strengthening a way of life I had deliberately chosen to leave behind. But as I’ve gotten older, I see how religion can provide people with a sense of purpose, a humility because there is something that exists that is greater than them, and a sense of community in a way that I think the absence of religion often leaves a big hole in people’s lives. As a framework, I still don’t believe religion is for me, but I don’t try and overfit the model.
As a general rule, I consider myself a strong supporter of capitalism. I believe it creates wealth. I believe markets naturally gravitate towards certain efficiencies. We also witness markets being created in the most obscure areas, from childhood playground lunch exchanges for the best snacks, to organ donations, to dating app matching, so that denying the existence of capitalism is almost like denying the existence of gravity. However, when I look at a city like New York and the challenges it faces today, I see a lot of problems that capitalism cannot solve. Some measures like free public buses or temporary rent freezes might offer real relief in the short term, even if these solutions lean a bit more 'socialist' than my usual philosophy.
As I go about my life I try to live with two deep philosophies (maybe contradictory given the rest of this blog). Try to maximize the number of frameworks you learn in your life. Doing so will give you the most ways to understand the world. And you can learn models you disagree with, with the understanding that some models are weak, but that they might still be useful in specific circumstances. All models are probably correct with some level of precision and recall.
And when you meet someone with a different belief, try asking yourself: what model are they using?
Are they operating from a different framework rather than a different reality? Are they weighing the same models as I am, but with different priorities? By recognizing that, you start to speak to them in the model they understand, or move beyond debates about who’s “right,” and start appreciating the value of seeing through more than one lens.